Hurricane Hilary to Bring Tropical Storm-Force Winds, Rain, and Large Waves to L.A. on Sunday (United Latest News)
(United Latest News)- Anticipated to strike Los Angeles on Sunday, former Hurricane Hilary is predicted to bring tropical storm-force winds, ranging from 39 to 73 mph, along with substantial rainfall and sizable waves. This unusual event involves the transformation of what is now Tropical Storm Hilary near the coast of Mainland Mexico. The forecast indicates that Hilary will evolve into a hurricane by 1 p.m. on Thursday, eventually escalating into a major hurricane (Category 3 and higher) by 1 a.m. Saturday. By 1 p.m. on Sunday, Hilary is projected to weaken into a milder hurricane before making contact with Southern California and potentially impacting Los Angeles as a tropical storm.
In recorded history, California’s coastline has experienced merely one complete tropical storm, known as the Long Beach tropical storm, which made landfall near San Pedro in 1939 as reported by the National Weather Service (NWS). Notably, no tropical cyclone has ever reached California’s shores at hurricane strength according to historical records.
Southern California is typically shielded from such storms by two predominant factors: cooler sea surface temperatures, which diminish their energy source, and upper-level steering winds in the eastern Pacific. However, this year’s El Niño occurrence has led to notably warmer ocean temperatures than usual, evident in the current 70-degree reading at Malibu. Normally, coastal ocean temperatures peak at 67 or 68 degrees during the summer in Los Angeles.
Weather forecast chart:
Nonetheless, the prediction of hurricane paths remains intricate, especially when considering events days in advance. The most recent forecast from the National Weather Service for Hilary acknowledges the significant uncertainty in the storm’s trajectory and potential impacts. Although the GEFS ensemble members show a consensus on moderate to heavy rain, particularly south of Pt. Conception, the forecast still holds a considerable level of uncertainty in terms of both the trajectory and consequences.
The projected amount of rainfall is notably substantial for summer conditions in Southern California, with various solutions indicating accumulations of 2.5″ to as high as 2.9″, as outlined by the NWS. This raises the likelihood of an exceptionally abnormal rain event. Presently, the official forecast predicts a region-wide rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches from Sunday through Tuesday, but this could vary significantly based on the actual trajectory.
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Additionally, the presence of lightning, if it materializes alongside wind but lacks accompanying rainfall, could elevate the risk of fire danger.