Estimating Earthquake Impact: Analyzing Fatality Measures on Countries

The assessment of earthquake-related fatalities relative to a country’s population size introduces a new perspective on estimating the impact of earthquakes. A recent study published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (BSSA), led by Max Wyss and his team at the International Center for Earth Simulation Foundation, introduces a novel measure called the earthquake fatality load (EQFL). This measure aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the impact of earthquakes on different countries by comparing the number of earthquake-related fatalities to the population estimate of the respective country at the time of the earthquake.

Analyzing EQFL: Insights and Findings

Wyss, along with Michel Speiser and Stavros Tolis, conducted a thorough analysis to calculate the EQFL for 35 countries and regions over the past five centuries. By aggregating the EQFL values for earthquakes within these regions and incorporating an annual EQFL measure, the researchers were able to rank the countries based on the impact of earthquake fatalities. Remarkably, these countries collectively accounted for 97% of all earthquake-related fatalities recorded from 1500 to March 2022.

Understanding Vulnerability: Key Factors Influencing EQFL

The study revealed that smaller countries are disproportionately affected by earth quake fatalities compared to larger nations, even if they experience fewer fatal earth quakes. This disparity arises because the loss of life represents a significantly larger proportion of the population in smaller countries.

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Geological Factors: Influence on EQFL

Additionally, countries lacking major tectonic plate boundaries and those with slow deformation accumulation rates on faults tend to rank higher in EQFL. For example, recent deadly earthquakes in Morocco and Afghanistan occurred along slowly deforming faults, underscoring the impact of geological factors on earthquake vulnerability.

Global Trends and EQFL: Changing Dynamics

Over time, the EQFL as a function of earth quake magnitude has exhibited a decreasing trend across all analyzed countries. This decline is attributed to improvements in building resilience and enhanced emergency response capabilities, resulting in reduced casualties and building damage.

Urbanization: Mitigating EQFL

Global trends such as urbanization play a crucial role in mitigating EQFL. The migration of people from rural areas to cities has led to the construction of buildings with earthquake-resistant designs and materials. Moreover, urban areas are better equipped to respond promptly to earthquake emergencies compared to remote villages, contributing to a decrease in EQFL.

Regional Disparities: Varied EQFL Trends

Notably, regions like California and a group comprising Colombia, Ecuador, and Mexico have witnessed a significant decrease in EQFL over the past five centuries. Conversely, Italy exhibits the least reduction in EQFL, possibly due to the preservation and inhabitation of old buildings, highlighting regional disparities in earthquake resilience.

Advocacy for Change: Addressing Earthquake Impact

Max Wyss has long advocated for prioritizing earth quake fatalities as a crucial metric for assessing earthquake impact globally. He and his colleagues developed QLARM (Quake Loss Assessment for Response and Mitigation), a service that utilizes population and building stock data to provide real-time calculations of fatalities, injuries, and building damage during earth quakes. This emphasis on human life rather than property underscores the importance of initiatives like QLARM in mitigating earthquake impact.

In conclusion, the EQFL measure offers valuable insights into the impact of earth quak on different countries over the past centuries. By analyzing earthquake-related fatalities relative to population size, this measure highlights regional disparities and underscores the importance of prioritizing earthquake preparedness and response efforts. Moving forward, initiatives like QLARM can play a pivotal role in reducing the human toll of earthquakes, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to safeguard vulnerable populations worldwide.