After a solid 9-4 victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers on Wednesday, the Philadelphia Phillies secured their first series win since July 11. Now, the Phillies head into a critical rematch against the Arizona Diamondbacks, hoping to avenge their loss in last season’s NLCS, which Arizona clinched in seven games. The series opener at Chase Field on Thursday features a duel between two left-handed pitchers: Kolby Allard for the Phillies and Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks.
Phillies Preview: Offensive Fireworks Expected
Philadelphia’s recent victory against the Dodgers could be a sign that their midseason slump is behind them. With most of their lineup healthy, except for Austin Hays, the Phillies are primed to showcase their offensive strength. Kolby Allard, who performed well in his last outing against the Mariners, will start for the Phillies. This season, Allard has allowed a .234 expected batting average (xBA) and has a 36% hard-hit rate. However, his time in Triple-A saw him post a 5.23 ERA over 63 2/3 innings, with a strikeout-to-walk (K/BB) ratio of 2.11.
Philadelphia has been dominant against left-handed pitching, boasting a 152 wRC+ over the past month, the best in MLB. They also rank second in walk-to-strikeout (BB/K) ratio and seventh in hard-hit rate during this period. Their overall OPS against lefties this season is .789, leading the league.
Diamondbacks Preview: Fading Jordan Montgomery
Jordan Montgomery has been a disappointment for the Diamondbacks this season, with the team going 8-9 in his starts. Despite receiving an average of 6.14 runs of support per game, Montgomery has underperformed, leading to a -14% return on investment (ROI) in his outings.
Since the All-Star break, Montgomery’s struggles have worsened. He has posted a 6.00 ERA and a 1.58 WHIP in his last three starts. Opponents have a .303 xBA against him since July, and his hard-hit rate has spiked to 48%. Montgomery has particularly struggled at Chase Field, where he holds an 8.39 ERA and a 2.07 WHIP this season. His 15% strikeout rate is among the lowest for any starter with over 45 innings pitched.
Offensively, the Diamondbacks have been strong, with Corbin Carroll and Gabriel Moreno leading the charge. However, Moreno’s recent groin injury has placed him on the 10-day injured list (IL). Despite this, the Diamondbacks maintain a 136 wRC+ and a .516 slugging percentage over the last 30 days, ranking third in BB/K ratio and sixth in hard-hit rate.
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks: Predictions and Betting Analysis
Given Jordan Montgomery’s struggles, particularly at home, and the Phillies’ dominance against left-handed pitching, backing the Phillies on the moneyline (-105) seems like a strong play. Kolby Allard, while not overly convincing, offers a slight edge and is supported by one of the deepest bullpens in baseball. This could be crucial as Allard may not pitch deep into the game.
For those looking at series outcomes, betting on the Phillies to win the four-game series at -120 offers value, especially with pitchers like Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez expected to take the mound in the upcoming games.
Betting Picks:
- Pick: Phillies Moneyline -105 (Bet365, Play to -110)
- Series Winner (4 Games): Phillies -120 (Bet365, Play to -130)
Run Line Consideration
Given the Phillies’ current form and favorable matchup, the run line might seem appealing. However, with the Phillies +1.5 at -205, the moneyline offers better value.
Over/Under Analysis
Chase Field has been a hitter-friendly park this season, and with both starting pitchers struggling, the over looks like a smart bet. Backing the first five innings to go over 5 runs could be particularly profitable, especially if the odds remain around -110.
In summary, the Phillies are in a strong position to build on their recent success, while the Diamondbacks face an uphill battle with Montgomery on the mound. Betting on Philadelphia in this matchup offers good value across multiple markets.
